Estimation of sales decrease caused by a disaster: Hokkaido blackout after earthquake in 2018

Author

Ozaki, Jun'ichi and Takayasu, Hideki and Takayasu, Misako

Abstract

We simulate the inter-firm trading network which consists of approximately 1 million nodes, and we estimate the firm sales in Japan. We apply the gravity interaction model to the real Japanese inter-firm trading network to calculate the money transport between firms. Sales of each firm are evaluated through the scaling relation between the money flow and the sales, and then the total sales are calculated as an economic indicator. This calculation method is applicable to other situations. As an example, we present an estimation of sales decrease caused by the blackout due to the Hokkaido earthquake in September 6, 2018. The total sales are calculated in both cases: before and just after the earthquake. The total loss of sales is estimated as 35 billion yen per day for direct decrease in the firm sales in Hokkaido, while as 90 billion yen per day for indirect decrease in the other areas. The indirect sales decrease is about 2.6 times as well as the direct sales decrease.